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Blog: xG Weight A/B test results — xgWeight=0.2 wins all markets
Walk-forward backtest across 26 leagues, 4 treatments (xg=0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2). xgWeight=0.2 beats control: OVERS +3.99pp, UNDERS +3.31pp, SIDES +1.18pp CLV. Effect is monotonic with no plateau. AH flat (~9.7% CLV across all treatments).
Walk-forward backtest across 26 leagues, 4 treatments (xg=0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2). xgWeight=0.2 beats control: OVERS +3.99pp, UNDERS +3.31pp, SIDES +1.18pp CLV. Effect is monotonic with no plateau. AH flat (~9.7% CLV across all treatments).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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