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Blog: Do Old Players Actually Decline? (empirical age curves research)

Fitted LOWESS age curves from 789 player-seasons. No-age wins 5/5 stats. Survivorship bias hides decline — 34+ players are +16.5% above average because only elite survive. Key next steps: backfill to 11 seasons,

Fitted LOWESS age curves from 789 player-seasons. No-age wins 5/5 stats. Survivorship bias hides decline — 34+ players are +16.5% above average because only elite survive. Key next steps: backfill to 11 seasons, lower minutes threshold, add lower leagues.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

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